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西北旱区农业水土资源利用分区研究

Agricultural Water And Land Resources Regionalization in Arid Northwest China

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【Author in Chinese】 张翔

【Supervisor】 张青峰

【Author's Information】 西北农林科技大学, 地图学与地理信息系统, 2015, 硕士

【Abstract in Chinese】 农业水土资源对人类的生产生活起着十分重要的作用。随着社会发展,人口增长,对农产品的需求不断增加,农业用水的严重不足和浪费以及水土资源空间布局的不匹配直接影响到农业生产力水平的提高,制约着农产品的供给。我国作为发展中国家和农业大国,粮食安全问题是保障国家安全的基本要求。西北旱区作为我国重要的粮食后备基地,如何解决持续增长的农产品需求同有限的农业水土资源之间的问题,不仅关系到区域粮食安全,更关系到国家粮食安全。然而西北旱区面积广阔,地形复杂,地貌多样,水资源短缺,生态失调严重,农业水土资源缺乏有效合理的配置。在此情况下,依据自然地带性和区域分异性规律,充分认识西北旱区农业水土资源利用现状,对西北旱区农业水土资源进行综合区划研究,对于促进区域农业水土资源协调,针对性的制定水土资源管理方案据有重要的现实意义。本研究以西北旱区为研究范围,通过对区域自然条件、社会经济水平、生态环境等方面进行综合分析,收集、检验、整理研究区域的多层次数据,运用地理学、统计学相关理论,以GIS为技术支撑,首先以西北旱区大型灌区为例进行了耕地压力现状研究,然后使用相对均质的格网单元,运用空间分析与统计分析手段,选用不同的分区方法对西北旱区农业水土资源利用进行分区,并确定了最优的分区方法,为西北旱区农业水土资源优化配置提供了理论基础。研究内容与结论主要如下:(1)以西北旱区大型灌区为例进行了耕地压力分析利用耕地压力模型模拟了不同粮食消费模式下西北旱区大型灌区耕地压力特征,模拟结果反映了其在人口、水资源、粮食生产能力、种植制度和方式等不变的情况下经济社会发展的不同阶段的人粮关系状况。结果表明,西北旱区大型灌区粮食生产能力高,除了满足自身的粮食需求外,还可为周边地区提供一定粮食输出和生态移民的空间,充分发挥灌区在旱区农业、农村发展以及城乡经济发展的支撑与辐射带动作用,协调好不同灌区间、灌区内部的粮食供给,有利于实现西北旱区的整体粮食安全。(2)利用格网法进行了西北旱区农业水土资源利用分区解决了西北旱区农业水土资源利用分区的多元数据问题,为综合分区提供了理想的数据框架,更为真实的反映了气候、地形等无明确界线的因子,实现了自然条件、社会经济水平、生态环境的多角度数据集成,打破了行政单元界线的束缚,使分区结果更加准确,实践证明,基于格网的西北旱区农业水土资源利用分区比基于行政单元的分区更接近于实际,更能反映出不同区域的水土资源状况、分异规律,具有一定的科学意义。(3)分析探讨了西北旱区农业水土资源利用分区方法主成分分析对于西北旱区农业水土资源分区有着重要作用,利用主成分分析,将原来多个指标变量转换为少数几个综合指标、通过降维处理技术,用较少的综合指标反映多指标变量所反映的信息,使各个因子之间的相关性降低,从而解决分类因子之间的共线性问题,提高分类准确度。SOFM神经网络算法对于西北旱区农业水土资源分区特征识别,效果较好。结合主成分分析,类别内聚特征优于其他分区方法,且分类准确度较高。因此,将主成分分析同SOFM神经网络相结合进行西北旱区农业水土资源利用分区是有效可行的。

【Abstract】 Agricultural water and land resources plays a very important role in human’s life. With the social development, population growth and increasing demand for agricultural products,serious shortage of agricultural water and spatial distribution of water and land resources directly affects the level of increase agricultural productivity, which restricts the supply of agricultural products. China is a developing country and it is also a large agricultural country,so food security is a basic requirement for protecting state security. Northwest arid region is an important grain reserve base of China. How to solve the growing demand for agricultural commodities with limited agricultural water and land resources, not only related to the area of food security, but also related to national food security. However, the Northwest Arid Area have the following characteristics: a vast area, complex terrain, varied topography, water shortages, serious ecological imbalance, the lack of effective and rational allocation of agricultural water and land resources. In this case, based on the natural areas and area heterogeneities law, to recognize the utilization status of Northwest Arid agricultural water and land resources. It has an important practical significance by comprehensive zoning research of Agricultural water and land resources for the promotion of regional coordination,and targeting development of management programs of water and land resources.In this study, Northwest arid region is the study area. Through a comprehensive analysis of regional natural conditions, socio-economic level, and the ecological environment,multi-level data of study area was collected, tested and finished. Geography, statistically relevant theory have been used, and GIS for technical support. First, pressure on farmland of large-scale irrigation in Northwest arid region has been studied. Second, relatively homogeneous grid cells and spatial analysis and statistical analysis tools were used to part Northwest Arid Water and land Resources utilization by different partitioning methods. And to determine the optimal partitioning methods which provided a theoretical basis for Northwest Arid Agriculture and Water Resources Optimization configuration.The main contents and conclusions were as follows:(1) Analysis of large-scale irrigation arable pressure of Northwest Arid.Using arable land pressure model, large-scale irrigation arable pressure characteristic by different food consumption patterns of Northwest Arid were Simulated. The results reflect therelationship between the status of the people and food at different stages of economic and social development in the population, water resources, food production capacity, cropping systems and methods remain unchanged. The results showed that the Northwest Arid large-scale irrigation for food production capacity is high. In addition to meeting their own food needs, but also provide some food output and spatial ecological migrants to the surrounding areas. It can give full play to the leading role of irrigated arid region and support agriculture, rural development and urban and rural economic development. It also have good coordination among different irrigation irrigated food supply inside, it is conducive to the Northwest Arid Area of overall food security.(2) Using grid method to part agriculture water and land resources of Northwest Arid Area.It have solved the problem of multivariate data of Northwest Arid Water and land Resources Utilization partition. It also provides an ideal data framework for comprehensive zoning, with a more realistic reflection of the climate, topography and other factors with no clear boundaries. It realized natural conditions, socio-economic level, multi-angle data integration of ecological environment, and broke the boundaries of administrative units bound to make the results more accurate partition. Practice shows that Northwest Arid Land Resources Utilization of Agricultural zoning district based on grid was closer to the actual than it based on the administrative units. Better reflect the different areas of water and land resources and diversity law. It has a scientific significance.(3) Partitioning method of Northwest Arid water and land resources utilization was analyzed.Principal component analysis plays an important role for partitioning of Northwest Arid water and land resources. Using principal component analysis, the original multiple indicator variables were converted to a few comprehensive index. By reducing the dimension technique,with fewer comprehensive indicators to reflect information of more indicator variables. It can make the correlation between each factor lower. Thereby, it can solve the problem of colinearity between classification factors, and improve the classification accuracy. SOFM neural network algorithm for Northwest arid water and land resource partitions feature recognition was better. Combine principal component analysis, category cohesive characteristics superior to other partitioning methods, and with higher classification accuracy.Therefore, the principal component analysis combination with SOFM neural network for partitioning Northwest arid water and land resources utilization is feasible and effective.

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