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基于柯本气候分类的中国大陆气候变化研究(1961-2010年)

Climate Changes in China Mainland Based on K?ppen Climate Classification for 1961-2010

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【Author in Chinese】 朱耿睿

【Supervisor】 李育

【Author's Information】 兰州大学, 地理学·地球系统科学, 2017, 硕士

【Abstract in Chinese】 柯本气候分类法是以气温和降水两个气候要素为基础,并参照自然植被分布的一种气候分类法,该分类法系统分明,各气候类型有明确的数量界限,至今仍被广泛采用。近年来,多种气候分类方法被尝试应用于探讨了我国气候分类与气候变化,但大多使用国内的体系和方案,缺乏与国际接轨。本文采用柯本气候分类法研究近五十年的中国大陆气候,发现中国大陆地区主要气候带有干带(B)、温暖带(C)、冷温带(D)和以高地气候为主的极地带(E),主要气候型有草原气候(Bs)、沙漠气候(Bw)、冬干温暖气候(Cw)、常湿温暖气候(Cf)、冬干冷温气候(Dw)、苔原气候(ET)。气候类型作为一个地理学概念包含了综合性的气候信息,同时研究气候类型变化也是研究气候变化的重要方式。本文使用气候类型面积变化这一地理学指标来探讨中国大陆1961-2010年年际和年代际气候变化特征,气候型的划分基于国际通用的柯本气候分类法,计算了东亚夏季风指数(EASMI)、南亚夏季风指数(SASMI)、夏季西风指数(SWI)、东亚冬季风指数(EAWMI)、海冰指数(SII)等指数,分析这些气候要素的强弱对各气候型面积变化的影响。研究结果显示:柯本气候类型的年际变化显示,东亚夏季风主要影响沙漠气候。南亚夏季风主要影响常湿冷温气候、沙漠气候、热带疏林草原气候。夏季西风主要影响苔原气候、常湿冷温气候。东亚冬季风主要影响热带疏林草原气候、草原气候、冬干冷温气候、常湿冷温气候。海冰指数主要影响热带树林草原。而其中对中国大陆气候影响区域最广,影响程度最明显的是东亚冬季风。10年平均气候类型显示,出现变化的区域主要分布在天山以北地区,青藏高原西部,瑷珲腾冲线附近以及梅雨边缘区。年代际尺度的气候类型变化表现为中国大陆整体出现变暖趋势,北方地区出现变干趋势。年际尺度的各气候类型面积变化表现出明显的升温趋势,而未表现出明显的降水变化趋势。本文提出了一种新的气候敏感区定义机理,并使用该方法划了分中国大陆的气候敏感区。这种新的划分方法基于气候类型及其变化,气候类型变化频繁的区域被认为是敏感区。同时,本文计算了中国大陆在1961-2010年的温度和降水的变化趋势,并将结果与同时期的气候敏感区进行比较,并结合CESM气候模型预测21世纪40年代和90年代气候敏感区的变化。结果显示:本文提出的气候敏感区划分方法,与降水敏感区有较好拟合;中国大陆气候最敏感的区域分布在瑷珲腾冲线附近、秦岭淮河一线,青藏高原西部和天山以北部分地区,气候最为稳定的区域分布在青藏高原中东部、昆仑山、祁连山以北、天山以南、贺兰山以西的大片区域和大兴安岭附近;本世纪2040s至2090s,西部(贺兰山、横断山以西)地区气候敏感区基本不变,而东部地区的气候敏感区则逐渐向北偏移。

【Abstract】 K?ppen climate classification,which is based on temperature and precipitation,has been used worldwide.Besides temperature and precipitation,the distribution of natural vegetation is also considered as a major factor of the system.With clearly quantitative limits,the classification system can be easily used to distinguish different climate types.A variety of climatic classification methods have been attempted in China to explore Chinese climate classification and climate change in recent years,but most of them are not in line with international classification methods.In this paper,the K?ppen climate classification was used to classify the climate zones of China mainland.According to the results,there are 4 major climate zones,including arid climate(B),warm temperate climates(C),snow climates(D)and polar climates(E).Major climatic subtypes include steppe climate(Bs),desert climate(Bw),warm temperate climate with dry winter(Cw),warm temperate climate,fully humid(Cf),snow temperate climate with dry winter(Dw)and tundra climate(ET).As a geographic concept,climate zone contains comprehensive climate information.Research into changes in climate zones is an important way to study climate change.Here,as a geographic indicator,area of climate zone is used to explore China mainland interannualinterdecadal climate variation from 1961 to 2010.Climatic zones were based on K?ppen climate classification.East Asia summer monsoon index(EASMI),South Asia summer monsoon index(SASMI),summer westerly index(SWI),East Asia winter monsoon index(EAWMI),and Sea Ice Index(SII)were used to analyze the impacts of climate change.According to the results,East Asia summer monsoon(EASM)has an impact on desert climate(Bw).South Asia summer monsoon(SASM)has an impact on desert climate(Bw),snow temperate climate without dry season(Df)and Savannah climate(Aw).Summer westerly(SW)has an impact on tundra climate(ET)and warm temperate climate without dry season(Df).East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM)has an impact on savannah climate(Aw),steppe climate(Bs),snow temperate climate with dry winter(Dw),and snow temperate climate without dry season(Df).Sea Ice(SI)has an impact on savannah climate(Aw).The most important index in China mainland is the East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM).The northern Tianshan Mountains,western Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,both sides of the Aihui-Tengchong line and edge of the Meiyu Area were the most sensitive to climatechange.Interdecadal changes in climate zones show that China mainland has became warmer,and the North China has became drier.Interannual changes in climate zones show that China mainland has became warming,but not show it has been drier or wetter.Based on climate regionalization and its changes,a new definition method of climate sensitive regions whose climate types changed frequently was proposed in this paper.We calculated temperature and precipitation trends during 1961-2010 of China mainland,and compared with climate sensitive regions in the same period.In addition,we predicted climate sensitive regions in the 2040 s and 2090 s with Community Earth System Model(CESM).The results showed that the most sensitive regions of China mainland which are roughly coincides with precipitation change hot-spots are distributed near the Aihui-Tengchong line,the Qinling Mountains-Huaihe River line,in the Western Tibetan Plateau,and to the north of Tianshan Mountains.The most climatically stable regions are mainly distributed in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau,the north of Kunlun Mountains and Qilian Mountains,and the west of Tianshan Mountains and Helan Mountains.Furthermore,climate sensitive regions to the west of Helan Mountains and the Hengduan Mountains would be basically unchanged,while climate sensitive regions in Eastern China would move northward in the next decades.

  • 【Contributor】 兰州大学
  • 【Year of Internet Publish】201907
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