我国农村金融发展与农村经济增长问题研究--兼论以农村信用社改制为主题的县域金融重构

改革开放以来,我国国民经济取得了长足发展。但是农村经济在整个国民经济中的比重却在下降。城乡居民收入差距拉大,农民收入在九十年代中后期甚至出现了绝对值的下降。“三农”问题成了困扰我国经济发展的一个重大难题。经济学界的普遍观点认为发展农村经济的根本途径一是农村剩余劳动力向非农业转移,二是通过农业结构的调整,生产高附加值农作物(林毅夫,2003.9)。诚然,造成农村经济增长缓慢的原因是多方面的,其中之一就是农村金融的供给瓶颈。 目前我国农村金融存在着种种问题:农村金融组织不完善,国有商业银行撤并县以下基层机构;农业发展银行削减了政策性支农业务;邮政储蓄只从农村吸收存款而无发放贷款的职能;农村信用社资产质量差,非农化倾向严重等。从而导致农村资金大量流向城市,农业再生产资金匮乏。到2002年11月底,估计从农村流出的资金约为3000亿元(夏斌,2003)。因而,要促进农村经济的发展,农村金融改革已是迫在眉睫。 本文的研究思路是从金融发展与经济增长的相关理论为出发点,通过创建农村经济增长模型,得出农村金融深化指标是解释农村经济增长的重要变量。然后分析目前我国农村金融抑制的现状和原因,提出解除金融抑制、促进农村经济发展的政策建议。 研究的主要结论及创新: (1)本论文参考内生经济增长理论中的Pagano模型,将指标进行适当的选择和处理,运用到我国农村经济领域,建立了我国农村经济增长模型。通过回归分析得出:农村金融深化指标是重要的解释变量;同时政策性变量也是影响农村经济增长的重要因素;而利率指标与农村经济增长呈现显著的负相关关系,这与利率指标和国家宏观经济增长指标的模拟结论完全相反(二者呈现正相关关系)。说明第一,金融抑制确实是制约农村经济增长的重要因素;第二,政府的政策措施对农村经济的发展也起了决定性作用;第三,我国市场呈现出分割状态,农村市场符合凯恩斯所描述的“萧条经济”特征,因而针对农村经济的政策措施应与整个宏观经济相区别。浙江大学博士学位论文我国农村金融发展与农村经济增长问题研究 (2)对影响我国农村经济增长的制度性因素进行了简要分析,同样得出农村金融抑制是制约农村经济增长的因素之一。理论与实证分析的结果成为本文立论的依据。 (3)从农村微观经济的主体视角出发,深入分析了金融产品的需求方—农户、乡镇企业和农村基层政府组织的信贷资金需求情况。主要运用农户调查资料剖析农村金融抑制现象是本文的又一创新点。 (4)从金融产品的供给方—农业银行、农业发展银行、农村信用社、合作基金会以及保险等行业和部门的发展历程以及为农村提供金融服务的情况,从另一视角揭示了我国农村金融抑制状况。 (5)根据“理性人”追求自身收益最大化的视角出发,对农村金融产品的供需主体行为进行了分析,得出外生的正式金融机构无法为农村提供足够的金融产品,趋利性的本质必然促使其从农村领域撤出,资金也必然会向收益高、风险低的部门流动,因而我国农村金融抑制现象的存在有其客观必然性。导致金融产品的需求方不得不从非正式的民间金融渠道寻求资金帮助,民间金融在这里起了拾遗补缺的作用。 (6)为了解除农村金融抑制现象,需要对我国农村金融体系进行全方位、多层次的整体性变革。具体包括合作性金融、政策性金融和商业性金融三大部分,涉及信贷、保险等各领域。因为当前农村金融的主要矛盾是信贷资金需求得不到满足,所以为农户提供信贷服务的农村信用社的改革就显得尤为重要。 (7)农村信用社自身发展所面临的主要困境是资产质量差、历史包袱沉重、资本金规模过小等问题,受这些因素的制约无法为农户提供再生产所需要的充足的信贷资金;并且农信社真正的组织目标是追求收益最大化,它己经与合作制的本质相背离,决定其不可能从社员的角度出发完全履行扶助“三农”的义务。而当前农村信用社改组为股份制或股份合作制银行的方案,也只是部分地解决了农信社自身的经营困境,但是从所有权形式、组织目标、经营原则等制度性规定来分析,改制后的农信社将更加远离“三农”,而这是与改革的初衷相违背的。 (8)我国农村金融领域需要真正合作化的金融组织,当前农信社改革这种强制性制度变迁不可能产生出农民自己的信用合作组织。合作金融只能依靠自下而上诱致性制度变迁产生,这或许会从一些组织行为规范、管理严密的民间金融中演进而浙江大学博士学位论文我国农村金融发展与农村经济增长问题研究来。所以当前逐步规范、引导民间金融活动,承认其合法地位,是农村金融改革的重要一环。 (9)鉴于农业的弱质性特征,政策性金融应起到弥补市场缺陷、提供准公共产品、扶持合作金融组织、支持农村经济增长的作用。当前巫需改革的政策性金融部门在信贷和保险领域,我们可以借鉴国外的成功经验,开展政策性金融商业化、市场化的运作模式,这样做既可以避免政府陷入“贫困性陷阱”,又可以提高资金的配置效率。 总之,农村?

Since the reform and opening in economic, the national economy of China has taken great development. But the proportion of the rural economy in the national economy has been declining. The gap of residents income between urban and rural have been broaden, especially in the medium&upper-term of 90’s, the farmer incomes occurred absolutely descending. The issue of "Agriculture, Rural, and farmer" have become an important problem puzzling the China economy. In the view of economic academic community, the approach of advance the rural economy is guiding country surplus labor to transformation. Secondly, yielding higher value added crops through adjusting the agrarian structure (Lin Yifu, 2003). Indeed, there may be some reasons engender the rural economy’s growth slowly, one of it is the bottleneck of rural finance supply.At present, the rural finance meets all kinds of problems. The rural finance organization exist limitation, the state commercial banks withdraw their rural embranchment; the Agricultural Development Bank cut its policy service to sustain agriculture; the Post Savings be allowed take deposits and unable to crediting; the Rural Credit Cooperatives’ assets is poor, leaning to non-agricultrue, and so on. All of the problems directly lead to the capitals are flowing from country to city, and the agriculture reproduction’s fund has been shorted. It is estimated that the amount of capital is about 300 billion Yuan up to 11, 2002 (Xia Bin, 2003). Thus, in ord to developing rural economic, we must reform the rural finance system immediately.The textual research process is: on the basis of financial development and economic growth theory, set up rural economic growth model, educing an important view that the index of the rural financial depth is a significant variable which explaining the rural economic growth. Then analyse the status and the reasons in rural financial constraint, put forward the policy and advices to unchain the financial constraint, accelerate the evolution of rural economy.The main conclusion and innovation as fellows:(1)Consulting the Pagano model in the theory of endogenesis economic growth , into China rural economic sphere, select the proper index, build rural economic growth model, get through analysis of regression between China rural economic growth and rural financal development, enducing that the index of rural financal development is the important explanatory variable. At the same time, policy variable is one of the important factors, but the index of the interest rate take on the remarkable negative correlation with the rural economic growth, quite the opposite with the macroeconomics (either take on the direct correlation).It declare that financial constraint is one of the important factor that restrict the rural economic growth; secondly, government’s policy is also the decision effect; thirdly, our country’s market present division status. The rural markets according with the character of Keynes’ "depression economy". Thus, the policy and measure in rural economic ought to difference with macroeconomic.(2)Analyzing the system factor that affect the rural economic, also educing that the rural financial constraint is one of the important factors that restrict the rural economic growth. The conclusion of theory and demonstration’s analyse is my paper’s gist.(3)Based on the rural microeconomic body, I have in-depth analyzed the demander of financial products including the farmer, township and village enterprises and rural grassroots’ government organization. Take advantage of research datum of farmer, analyzing the rural financial constraint, is my paper’s another innovation.(4)Based on the analyzing the supplier of financial products, including the Agricultural Bank, the Agricultural Development Bank, the Rural Credit Cooperatives, the Rural Cooperative Foundation, the rural insurance and so on, from the other visual angle, revealing our rural financial constraint.(5)According to the view of "rational man" pursuing profits maximum of his own, we can d

农村金融发展; 农村经济增长; 金融抑制; 农村信用社;

Rural Financial Development; Rural Economic Growth; Financial Constraint; Rural Credit Cooperation;

国家自然科学基金;

袁飞;

F323.9

78801577564k